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Start with a profile, then adjust any figure.

Demand
units
Across a normal working day.
± units
Standard deviation. Roughly a quarter of the peak-to-trough swing.
units
Worst day you would still want to cover.
Supply
days
Order placed to goods on the rack.
± days
Standard deviation of how late they run.
days
The one that nearly stopped the line.
Service and cost
Cover during the lead time, not across the year.
£
What you pay, not what you sell it for.
Carrying cost 22% / yr
Capital, storage, insurance, obsolescence. 20–25% is usual.

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